noun
bellwether
BEL-weth-er/ˈbelweðər/
A person or thing that leads or signals a wider trend.
The bellwether leads the flock, its small bell hanging at its neck.

Etymology
A bellwether was a lead sheep wearing a bell. That flock-leading role became an image for a leader, then for something indicating the direction of wider trends.
In context
this is your Bellwether for majority in the house this is the question about whether or not there's a red wave
More examples
- Analysts treat the company's sales as an economic bellwether.
- Her early work became a bellwether of changing artistic tastes.
- Several indicators serve as bellwethers for the industry.
Forms
bellwether · bellwethers
Similar words
- indicator
- Signals a condition without necessarily leading a wider trend.
- pacesetter
- Emphasizes setting the lead rather than predicting broader change.