noun / verb

conjecture

kuhn-JEK-cher/kənˈdʒektʃər/

A conclusion based on incomplete evidence, or forming such a conclusion.

Her explanation is only conjecture until we find more evidence.

A researcher favors one complete vessel reconstruction even though only two small pottery shards are available and those same shards fit a markedly different reconstruction.

Etymology

conLatintogether

+jectLatinto throw

+ureLatinaction or result

The original image is a “throwing together” of facts to reach an inference. What began as interpreting signs or drawing conclusions came to mean an opinion whose evidence falls short of proof.

In context

Dr Ashok Jansari NeuroTalk92:03

answered I think that combination of right hemisphere damage and the damage in the front of the brain resulted in a confabulation to do with visual information again it's a conjecture

Confabulation, Capgras & Cotard's: The Amazing Insights From Brain Disorders (part 1)

More examples

His conjecture about the delay turns out to be correct.
Investigators conjecture that a faulty wire caused the fire.
We conjectured that the empty house had been sold.

Forms

conjecture · conjectures · conjectured · conjecturing

conjectural adjective — Based on incomplete evidence rather than proof.

Similar words

guess: Often suggests less reasoning or evidence than conjecture does.
hypothesis: Proposes an explanation that can be tested against evidence.
surmise: Emphasizes a tentative conclusion drawn from limited clues.